How to read this terminal (30 seconds)
Every number here was computed against criteria locked before results were seen, and corrected for every configuration ever tested — the honest question is never “did it make money?” but “is this distinguishable from the luckiest of 22,066 tries?”
Three outcomes exist: PASS, FAIL, and INSUFFICIENT DATA — the third is never rounded to either side. House bars (the pre-committed thresholds) are printed next to every result.
Walk-forward asks whether the edge kept working on data it had never seen, window after window. Monte Carlo asks how bad the drawdowns can plausibly get at your account size.
The CAMPAIGNS tab shows completed parameter searches — including the negative ones. Results that died on the holdout firewall are reported exactly as measured.
Validation Resultsevery test, with its bar shown
Made +$22,431 on untouched data — but corrected for 20,734 configurations tested, confidence this beats luck is 8.7% (needs ≥95%).✕ FAIL
Profitable excluding volatile years (+$4,865), but 54% of profit came from one window; past strength did NOT predict future results.✕ FAIL
At $20,000: 2.1% chance of a 30%+ drawdown (limit 5%), 0.0% of 50%+ (limit 1%).✓ PASS
OOS stays $+22,761 at 2× honest costs (breakeven ≈ 10.5× — not cost-fragile)✓ PASS
Not computable for the legacy search (no per-config returns saved). Counted as insufficient data, not a pass.◆ INSUFFICIENT DATA
Overfitting Correctioncorrected for every configuration ever tested
309 out-of-sample trades, +$22,431. The luckiest of 20,734 no-edge configurations would be expected to look better — corrected confidence (DSR) 8.7%.
Drawdown Risk by Account Sizeminimum passing $20k
Monte Carlo — solid: 30%+ drawdown odds (bar 5%); dashed: 50%+ (bar 1%).
Cost Stresssurvives worse execution?
| 1.0× honest costs | +$25,449 |
| 1.5× honest costs | +$24,105 |
| 2.0× honest costs (pass bar) | +$22,761 |
| 3.0× honest costs | +$20,073 |
Earnings by Market Regimewhere the money comes from
Walk-Forward — nine 6-month forward tests54% from one window
| window | trades | net | PF | max DD% | prior-2yr PF | tradeable? | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01..06 | 46 | +$3,314 | 1.43 | 16.2 | 1.28 | yes | |
| 2022-07..12 | 30 | −$189 | 0.95 | 15.1 | 1.32 | yes | |
| 2023-01..06 | 26 | −$1,973 | 0.49 | 21.7 | 1.21 | yes | |
| 2023-07..12 | 25 | +$95 | 1.03 | 10.2 | 1.18 | yes | |
| 2024-01..06 | 25 | −$1,182 | 0.68 | 24.9 | 1.07 | no | |
| 2024-07..12 | 34 | +$2,839 | 1.85 | 7.3 | 0.78 | no | |
| 2025-01..06 | 51 | +$14,014 | 2.82 | 6.3 | 0.98 | no | Y |
| 2025-07..12 | 37 | +$3,552 | 1.60 | 20.5 | 1.90 | yes | Y |
| 2026-01..06 | 35 | +$1,960 | 1.23 | 18.2 | 1.93 | yes |
Still profitable with 2025 removed? +$4,865 · warning: past strength anti-predictive
Other Markets · Locked CriteriaNQ only
| S&P micro | 274 | −$8,565 |
| Dow micro | 285 | −$4,367 |
| Gold micro | 534 | +$5,276 |
| Crude micro | 419 | +$1,167 |
Logic transfer measured: loses on S&P/Dow, noise on gold/crude — validated market is NQ only. Full per-market searches ran as counted campaigns — see the CAMPAIGNS tab.
a7a6ab408c66bbb47b404370a48e…345a4c4802e9023dcb5266f420fc…416e4461d3379961efd92526bb0d…5fe251bd6f698c0490db0b90595f…1b17933c50d9be224455343c3554…7aa3914a6d265f08bc6314c1b64f…3226a0159ebfba404d681ebc0e55…51598c1c44830d2b27d9225690ca…55e0a784c5815adc4513784031d4…0a3472be6fad029f27424d8ab846…8d06edc56a0956ccaa44476d0a89…9e0cffc70a9d473c116394aebe46…